The Metrics of War

A couple days ago a bunch of new "snowflakes" were released on the Rumsfeld Library. I almost want to put that library bit in quotes, but really it's somewhat commendable such a controversial public figure would be willing to release so much of his own documentation and leave it open to public debate. I'll let the former SecDef (DefSec?) tell you what a snowflake is:

The term “snowflake” covers a range of communications, from notes to myself on topics I found interesting, to extended instructions to my associates, to simple requests for a haircut. There was no set template; some are several pages and some just a few words. They were all conceived individually and I had never considered them as a set until I started work on the memoir. I then found that when reviewed together, they give a remarkable sense of the variety of topics that are confronted by a secretary of defense.

Paul McCleary over at the Ares blog at Aviation Week already did a very interesting post on these. How Rumsfeld was known as somewhat of a detail oriented micro manager. Yet these new memos show him as being out of touch, slow to respond, and forgetful in following up on issues.

Among some of the older, previously released memos I found this gem from Ryan Henry, the Principal Deputy for Policy under the Secretary of Defense (how do fit all that on a business card?) back in July 2004. He seems to be responding to Rumsfeld asking about certain metrics that a senator had asked be included in the Iraq Weekly Report. Henry states they were already using all of the metrics besides two: number of prisons and number of tv stations broadcasting.

He comes off fairly professional but you can almost hear his incredulous tone as he later explains that they could report number of prisons or number of prisoners but feel that reporting the number of prisons up to international standards would be a more valuable metric. I've certainly got a few politely worded emails under my belt that similarly dance around the "really? you want me to start doing what now?" issue.

If you were wondering what they did track here's some of it:

• MW of electricity produced, percentage of Iraqis with power
• Numbers of schools open, percentage of boys and girls attending
• Number of hospitals open, percentage of Iraqis receiving care
• Timetable to democracy (hahaha)
• Crude oil production
• Number of militia and police, and number in training
• Gallons of water available, number of Iraqis with fresh water access
• Number of troops from other countries (you'd hope someone's keeping track of this)
• Number of US troops (again...)
• Food available, number malnourished
• Unemployment rate

My favorite part happens in the header of the next page:

I'm curious if 7 years later if we have finally "built justice".

EPA looks at your fuel use

If you go to www.FuelEconomy.gov you can get a personalized report on your own fuel use, compare government MPG ratings to personal reports, and even look at estimates for your carbon impact and petrol consumption. It's pretty neat. I especially like the crowdsourcing opportunities to compare mileage to individual reports. There are some kinks to be worked out (it says my car is a subcompact right now, maybe subcompact for a boat).

 

More importantly by 2013 all new cars will expected to come with this label which which shows average MPG in especially large lettering along with a quick EPA snapshot, average money spent on fuel, and how your car ranks on all these things. Kind of like calories on menus I wonder whether this kind of enforced labelling actually results in lower consumption.

The folks driving this bus

So I'm job searching in this terrible economy and I definitely wouldn't mind working for the feds. True they have a two year pay freeze on but they also get to work with some pretty cool equipment. You may wonder past the terribly long hiring time and low pay why the feds have trouble recruiting good people. You may think it's all the veterans taking your jobs. You'd be wrong.

 

GS-5:  To qualify for GS-5 entry-level engineering positions in the Federal government, you must meet specific education requirements or possess a combination of qualifying education and experience.

 

SPECIALIZED EXPERIENCE: GS-07 ONLY:   In addition to meeting the Basic Requirement, applicants must have one year of specialized experience equivalent to the GS-05 grade level in the Federal service. Specialized experience is experience such as: assisting to resolve technical issues on ship system design, installation, alteration, repair, inspection, maintenance, safety, and life cycle management; assisting to develop and monitor shipboard planned, preventive, and predictive maintenance systems.   Only experience acquired after graduation is creditable.   

To qualify at the GS-07 level based on Superior Academic Achievement you must have a bachelor's degree in engineering which meets one or more of the following areas listed below.   You may be appointed based on claimed academic achievement, pending verification of final grades.   However, if the required grades were not maintained through your senior year, you may not be able to retain the GS-07 grade level.

1.   A grade-point average of 3.0 or higher out of a possible 4.0 ("B" or better) based on 4 years of education, or based on courses completed during the final 2 years (60 semester hours minimum) of curriculum.

2.   A grade-point average of 3.5 or higher out of a possible 4.0 ("B" or better) based on the average of the required courses completed in the major field or the required courses in the major field completed during the final 2 years of curriculum (60 semester hours minimum).

That's right. Feds don't care what kind of internships you had while you were working on your degree. They only care what kind of GPA you got. In fact they're shooting their own vets in the foot. What about a vet who was an aircraft mechanic, reads and understands drawings, goes back to school on the GI bill, and graduates? He/she can not benefit from the experience of their stint in the military (true it does add to their total fed service time, but as the federal retirement benefits were obliterated and turned into a 401k-like system this is mostly useless).

 

So way to go federal government. Way to hand it to the guys who got the best GPA and didn't have to work while in college. I'm sure more silver spoon engineers is exactly what we need. They can also afford to take the appallingly low GS-7 pay for having an engineering degree.

Insidious Inflation

It's another week of data mining for me. Trying to compare two equivalent pieces of hardware for what could be a very pricey subcontracting decision. It doesn't help the powers that be would like to limit the testing done (which of course limits the data) so that they look good to the people above them.

One place where there's plenty of data is the US Government websites. There's been some talk recently about the affects of TARP and the stimulus and the Fed buying up treasury bonds and pumping money into the economy and how that will affect inflation. There's been plenty of arguments that despite all this they haven't seen inflation really go up, and that's the Fed's major justification for not upping interest rates at this point. If you look at historic CPI you can see it's been pretty flat throughout this recession.

But of course the CPI doesn't include fuel or food or things most lower and middle class Americans purchase on a regular basis. Am I that concerned if the cost of my clothes or laptops is going up when food and petrol are my primary concerns? From my own personal data mining I've amassed a whopping three months of information on gas prices and you can see it's got a very obvious upward trend. The especially troubling part of that is that typical year end gas prices tend to drop and that starting the year on a high note for oil companies probably does not bode well for the rest of us.

Whether gas is really an early indicator could be argued. And the folks that are not inflation hawks will definitely argue to the contrary. Afterall, inflation is one of the best PR machines big business could really hope for. In many ways it's the opiate of the poor. It's much more satisfying to think back to what your father's hourly wage was in 1977 and think proudly you're making more than him. But you might not be.

The graph of median household income can be misleading and much more telling when you adjust the numbers for inflation. In actuality, real median household income has increased 7.5% since 1984 after being adjusted for inflation. (The numbers might be different if you look back to the 1970s, this was just the years I picked for consistency). So how does that compare to the economy?

The GDP can be seen to plateau during the recession a little and in fact the inflation adjusted gains make it look like GDP hasn't gained that much either. But in fact, US GDP has increased 73.9% since 1984, and that's with inflation adjusted numbers. So when we hear about how much wages are increasing or not increasing or try to compare ourselves to previous generations and measure how far we've come inflation can make it look like we're getting our fair slice of the pie when we're really not. And that's why I think the powers that be will not do anything to slow inflation anytime soon as it covers up the risking income inequality in this country and the gains business and industry have made on the backs of American workers.

All of these data sets were pulled from the US Census Bureau and the US Bureau of Labor Statistics. I used the US BLS inflation calculator to adjust the raw data to an inflation baseline of 1984 when my data started.

Jet Engine Eats Tax Dollars

Here we again. More infighting and lying and bragging on the "alternate engine" for the F-35. You see, Pratt & Whitney won the initial engine competition for the F-35. The main competitor, a team of GE and Roll's Royce (not the same as the car manufacturer) lost the competition. You would think that would be the end to it. But no. Congress has been diverting program money towards the alternate engine. I talked about this before.

 

On Monday, just in time for a romantic Valentine's Day, the Department of Defense budget will be released. The budget will likely not include funding for the alternate engine. And the two engine manufacturers are trying to get ahead of the story with their own competing press lines.

 

So far Pratt & Whitney is running at 16% under cost per engine. But the new budget is going to include more funding for them, along the lines of a billion dollars more. GE and Roll's Royce are trying to draw plenty of attention to this extra funding as while some of it is for extra delivery of engines and related services, some is also pegged towards improvement. GE and Rolls are trying to demonstrate their engine is more innovative than the P&W engine and both are arguing about how worthy metrics like fuel burn are.

 

I suspect this will be contentious and I frankly don't care which engine is actually better. But we should be angry when competition doesn't fuel (see what I did there?) a better product but instead a hissy fit that serves no one, and congress while cutting budgets everywhere else continues to fund a defense item that is completely redundant and as far as typical defense programs completely unnecessary.

They're more like guidelines anyways

Government scientists need to know their studies and results will not be sidelined or put them in danger of losing their jobs. Many are complaining now they they are being treated much the same as they were more than two years ago by managers and in a way that fit right in with an administration that was largely anti-science. Scientists and even Republicans are disappointed that the scientific integrity regulations that were supposed to be released last year are still a work in progress. At this point, it would likely be better to have some framework in place even if it's incomplete. I'll admit seeing Georgia Representative Paul Brown (R) ranking Republican on the science oversight committee speak in favor of releasing these guidelines as well as positively about independent scientific peer-reviewed research is heartening. Though I'm suspicious at any Republican's motives when they speak in favor of something I feel like would get them kicked out of the Tea Party, he sounded genuine and of course the need is genuine.

 

I was almost surprised to hear a snipped from this interview with Obama last week where he spoke about the "must haves" vs the "nice to haves" in the government's budget. It's hard to remember he's pro-science these days. I know most of that is the fault of the economy but it still seems like a leap of faith.

Obama: You know, when — when families sit around the kitchen table, they say to themselves, what are the things we have to have? College education for our kids. Paying our mortgage. Getting the roof repaired. A new boiler. What are the things that would be nice to have? A vacation. Eating out. Some new clothes. And if they can afford it, they'd buy things that they'd like to have. But the first thing they do is take care of the things that we have to have.

And under that category, I'd put things like research and development, education, making sure that we're sending our kids to college, rebuilding our infrastructure to compete on the 21st century, making sure that this country is safe.

And I'd like to think the administration knows the difference between federal regulations that protect independent research and oversight that hinders creativity and originality. Earlier in the summer of 2010 an institute created the first self-replicating bacteria cell with a synthetic genome. Though the scientific merits of that development were argued, a Presidential Commission of bioethics looked into the matter to decide what kind of oversight might be necessary in creating biological organisms of this kind in the future. On the 16th of December they made eighteen recommendations around five major points. But in its conclusion the commission recommended self regulation noting that the risks were few and vigilant scientists could be sure to monitor one another as this field develops.

I think that's a good middle road but hope the long expected government regulations on scientific integrity are soon released because while we don't want to micromanage scientific results we do want to make sure researchers are protected.

What dreams are made of

Here's a photo of the White House gingerbread house for no particular reason. This is a yearly tradition, but love the White House dog sitting in front (though not exactly to scale is it?)

 

I have dreamed about having to go back to high school ever since I left high school. Sometimes I have to go back to take a class I need for college, or sometimes I am back in band again and hoping I can still compete even though I've already graduated. Last night I believe I had my first ever college dream. Or college dream that I can remember. Just in time for me to graduate, even my dreams know I will be done soon and it's time to start dreaming about it.

Crowdsourcing R&D

The Feds are trying a new tactic in getting solutions to some of their problems: letting the public take a shot at it. On challenge.gov they'll pose problems with cash prizes and see what people can do to come up with the solutions. You can see some of what it will look like by visiting ChallengePost and seeing what private industry has done so far. Or, if you are a federal employee you can take a sneak peek right now.

 

Some of what's being talked about is First Lady Michelle Obama asking for apps and games to inspire kids to get healthy as part of her Let's (make children feel guilty for being fat again) Move campaign. Okay, being a little snarky. But when you keep cutting back recess and physical education, keep adding more homework, less active kids is what you're going to get. I doubt an iPhone app is going to change that. Though I know Mrs. Obama doesn't have dictatorial control over P.E. schedules in schools so I'll try to be nice.

 

Anyways, should be interesting to see what problems the government proposes (do you suppose it'll be 85% software requests?) and what solutions people contribute, or what kind of reaction there is from the public, if any. I'm kind of afraid it'll become like so many "internships" I see being offered for software engineers that really just want a code monkey at a cut rate. But it could be kind of neat as well. Anyways, I'm looking forward to the official launch. Any ideas what kinds of problems would be good to pose from the government to the public? Or where the public's strong points lay in providing solutions?